10 Basic Strategy Tips By Christopher Liss RotoWire Managing Editor For the most common types of fantasy football leagues, there are certain fundamental principles that are important to keep in mind. We enumerate the 10 most important ones below. 1. Draft Running Backs Early In the most common leagues that number 10 to 14 teams and require a 1-QB, 2-RB, 2- or 3-WR starting lineup, running back will, more often than not, wind up being the position that determines who wins and who loses the league. Because NFL teams typically feature only one running back and two wide receivers, there are fewer productive running backs to go around. So securing good ones early, preferably in first and second rounds, is especially important, because if you wait, the pickings are likely to be slim. Moreover, a good running back gets the ball 25 times per game or more, whereas a good wide receiver catches only five passes per game. As a result, wideout production is harder to count on from game-to-game. Finally, because you are only required to start one quarterback, there are likely to be a lot more good options there in the middle rounds than at the running back position. 2. Wait on Quarterbacks While you may be tempted to take a quarterback with a mid to late first-round pick, don’t do it. In real football, the quarterback is the most important player on the field, but in fantasy, it’s all relative. In a 10-team league, the worst starting quarterback drafted will be the NFL’s 10th best (assuming some owners don’t draft more than one early – in which case they’ll really be hurting elsewhere). That’s because each team only needs to start one quarterback. While starting running backs will go at least 20 deep – and often deeper as savvy fantasy owners often draft three or more running backs in the early rounds, knowing that the position is so scarce – just about every quarterback drafted will be one projected to be in the top half of the NFL in overall production. That means that even if you’re the last owner in your league to pick a signal-caller, good options like Jeff Garcia, Aaron Brooks and Trent Green should be available in the middle or even later rounds. Moreover, there are almost certain to be young quarterbacks on your league’s waiver wire like David Carr or Joey Harrington who could emerge as solid starters in 2004. Unlike emerging running backs who will get snatched up right away by desperate owners, emerging QBs won’t be in as much demand and will therefore be largely available if you need one. 3. Pick Safe Early, Upside Late Unless you luck into a Priest Holmes in his record-breaking touchdown year with your first pick, your early round-selections are more likely to ruin your chances to win than they are to put you over the top. Why? Because most teams will get good production from their first two picks, and if you don’t, you’ll be at a big disadvantage. Stick with a safe and steady player over one who could be great, but who carries more risk. It’s better to have a running back like Shaun Alexander who is a virtual lock for 1,000-plus yards and 10-plus TDs than an injury-prone one like Marshall Faulk, who could put up huge numbers but is likely to miss a large chunk of the season. In the later rounds, however, it’s almost always better to roll the dice on players with upside like Ashley Lelie, DeShaun Foster, Justin Fargas and Donte’ Stallworth than proven mediocrities like Troy Brown, Ike Hilliard and Duce Staley. Proven mediocrities are sure to do something, but most likely it won’t be much more than what you can get from the better unrostered players in your league’s free-agent pool at any point during the season. But a highly talented, unproven player in a potentially explosive offense can carry your team if he pans out. Chances are, he won’t pan out, but if you draft three or four of these lottery tickets late, one or two of them may win your league for you. 4. Draft Kickers and Defenses Late In most league formats, kickers score a relatively small percentage of a team’s points, and therefore there’s not a whole lot of difference between the best kicker and the 12th-best kicker. Moreover, a kicker’s output is so highly team- and luck-dependent that it varies a lot from year to year, and it’s therefore difficult to predict which kickers will produce. Defenses should also be picked late. 5. Draft Before the Dropoff Most people come to their fantasy drafts with a cheat sheet that lists the players by position in order of their draft-worthiness, and when it’s their turn to pick, they take the highest player on the list at the position they need most. While there’s nothing wrong with using a list like that, it’s important to identify the dropoff between consecutive picks. For example, there may be very little difference between the fifth- and 10th-best wideout on your list, but a big difference between the 10th- and 11th-best. If the 10th wideout is available in the fourth or fifth round, you’d be wise to grab him because you know that if you let him go, the dropoff to the next one is steep. But if the 10th one gets picked right before your turn, and you know that there’s not a lot of difference between the 11th and 19th, then you’d be wise to choose a player at another position where there’s more risk of a dropoff before your next pick. 6. Get Your Star’s Backup If you draft Holmes or Stephen Davis early, it’s important that you get their backups – Larry Johnson or DeShaun Foster, respectively. While Holmes and Davis are quality NFL backs, both players are over 30 – ancient by NFL running back standards – and both have backups who could conceivably step in immediately and put up big numbers. Johnson could be a top-10 back running behind the best offensive line in football, and Foster showed what he could do in the playoffs. But there’s no point in drafting Peyton Manning’s backup, Cory Sauter, because there’s virtually no chance that he would come close to putting up Manning-type numbers. And Manning is one of the more durable players in the game. But for players like Holmes and Davis, you have to spend a late-middle round pick to reduce your risk. 7. Get Young RBs with Low Mileage Look, it’s hard enough to find good starting running backs, period, and so we’re not telling you not to draft Priest Holmes or Ahman Green. But all things being roughly equal, it’s better to get a younger guy with low mileage like a Kevin Barlow or Domanick Davis than a Marshall Faulk or Eddie George. NFL running backs have a very short shelf life, and you can see the seeds of decline in heavily worked ones like Ricky Williams, Edgerrin James and Curtis Martin. Obviously, a huge, fast, bruising back guaranteed to get 25 carries a game like Williams has to be a first- round pick, but in the middle rounds, go with young guys like Lee Suggs or Tatum Bell rather than older ones like Martin or George. 8. Stay Away from Rookie Receivers This one will be tested in 2004 given that we have perhaps the best rookie receiving crop of all time, but in general, rookie wideouts simply don’t produce. Since 1995, only four receivers (Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Randy Moss, and Anquan Boldin) have topped 1,000 yards in their rookie season. 9. Buy Low, Sell High, Be Patient If your first-round, star running back has a rough first couple weeks, don’t panic and deal him for a guy who has had a big first two weeks out of the blue. The key when evaluating your struggling star is to ask whether anything (other than his slow start) has fundamentally changed since you drafted him. If he’s still healthy, his offensive line is still intact and the team is still committed to giving him the ball 25 times per game, then you should value him as much as you did when you picked him. And if there are struggling players on other teams who fit that description, you’ll want to make an offer on them and buy them while their perceived value may be a little bit low. Conversely, if you have a running back who has racked up great numbers over the first couple weeks, but who has done so at the expense of weak defenses or who may lose carries to a veteran back set to return from an injury, you should try to shop him around when his value is at its peak. 10. Don’t Overplay Matchups Weekly production from your fantasy players is to some extent dependent on the quality of the opponent they’re facing. In other words, it’s a lot easier for them to rack up yards and touchdowns against a poor defense like that of the Chiefs than it is against a top unit like the Ravens. For that reason, it’s important to take the schedule into account when filling out your lineup each week. While this is a wise thing to do when two players are roughly equal, all too often fantasy owners will bench a star like Randy Moss when he’s facing a tough secondary and start a medium-level or up-and-coming player like Koren Robinson who faces an easier matchup. While Robinson is a nice player who can easily exploit a weak matchup, you can never sit a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player in his prime like Moss unless he’s injured, even if he’s going against the best defense in the league. Article first appeared 6/18/04